Is This As Good As It Gets?

Mortgage rates briefly dropped below 6% in early 2026 before rising again due to inflation concerns and global instability. In Boulder County, buyers currently have more negotiating power, but markets are no longer expecting near-term rate cuts.

Three years ago, buyers started waiting. Rates climbed, purchasing power shrank, and the logic made sense: wait it out, rates will come back down, the market will soften, and the timing will be better.

That moment came and went in two days.

In early 2026, published national mortgage rate averages briefly dipped below 6% for the first time since the rate cycle began. Two days later, the Iran war began. Oil prices surged toward $97 a barrel, inflation fears reignited, and the window closed. As of today, the CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing in zero rate cuts through at least March 2027. Rate hikes are now considered more likely than rate cuts. In four weeks, the conversation flipped entirely.

So the question buyers have been avoiding is now unavoidable: is this as good as it gets?

What buyers have right now

Today's market offers something that has not always been available in recent years: negotiating leverage. Across Boulder County, we are seeing more price reductions, seller-paid concessions to reduce buyers' mortgage rates, and homes sitting on the market longer. Buyers can negotiate. That changes when competition returns.

Mortgage rates today are known. They are not ideal, but they are real and they are financeable. A rate that feels high today can be refinanced if conditions improve. A price negotiated today is locked in.

What buyers are betting on if they wait

Waiting assumes rates will fall. The market is no longer pricing that in. If inflation stays elevated and the Fed holds or raises, buyers who wait for relief could be waiting until late 2027 or beyond. By then, inventory may be tighter, seller concessions may be gone, and competition from other sidelined buyers may have returned all at once. The buyers who moved when rates briefly softened in early 2026 got the price negotiation and the rate. The buyers who hesitated are now watching both windows close.

What nobody can tell you

Nobody knows what happens next. Not the Fed, not the markets, not me. What I can tell you is what I see on the ground: buyers who are financially ready and waiting for a better moment may find that the moment has already passed.

In 2020, when there was so much uncertainty in the outside world that we couldn't control, people focused on what they could control . . .  their nest. They invested in where and how they wanted to live and the home they wanted to create. I am seeing a lot of that again today.

The question is not whether rates are perfect. The question is whether you can afford to buy today and whether you are willing to bet that tomorrow will be meaningfully better.

For some buyers, the answer is wait. For others, the math says move.

Is this as good as it gets? Maybe.

Is it the right time? That depends on you.

If you want to talk through what the numbers look like for your situation, I am here.

Common Questions About Mortgage Rates in 2026

Q: Will mortgage rates go down in 2026?

Mortgage markets are currently not pricing in rate cuts through early 2027. Future rate movement depends on inflation, economic data, and global events.

Q: Is it better to buy now or wait for lower rates?

Buying now offers more negotiating power and potential seller concessions, while waiting assumes rates will fall and competition will not increase.

Q: Can you refinance if rates drop later?

Yes. Buyers who purchase today can refinance if rates improve, but cannot retroactively negotiate a lower purchase price.

If you’re exploring homes in Boulder County.